NTDOY Breaks The High Set by Pokémon Go Hype

Nintendo (NTDOY) opened at $37.61 today, $0.24 cents above the hype of the Pokémon Go launch which sent the stock rallying to $37.37 last summer. But why is it a big deal for the Japanese video game company to be back up near last summer’s high?

The Pokémon Go hype never should have sent investors to buy up shares of NTDOY. Pokémon Go is not a Nintendo application; there isn’t a Nintendo logo to be found anywhere within the app itself. In a statement released by Nintendo last July they clarified this misunderstanding.

But even if you fell for the misguided investor hype of buying last summer, you may soon have a nice profit on your hands. Nintendo has had a very good year and there are no sign of them stopping.

RELATED: You Lost Money in the Markets Last Year, Here’s Why…

March 3rd of this year the big N launched their newest console the Nintendo Switch. The system has been a hit ever since, out selling it’s competition and selling out with retailers. On March 31st the Nintendo Switch had sold 2.74 million units. The system launched with an equally successful game title The Legend Of Zelda Breath Of The Wild. This combination has put Nintendo back on the minds of every gamer and profits back in the company’s treasure chest. This is just the beginning for the new console, more games including new 3rd party titles are rapidly approaching their release dates and the profits should continue.

The annual Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) is next month and Nintendo will be showcasing their ‘Mickey Mouse’ of intellectual properties: Super Mario. Super Mario Odyssey is a Nintendo Switch exclusive due to launch this holiday season. Super Mario always brings the sales in from around the world, this new Mario game is sure to bring the profits. The company will also be showing off another IP exclusive, Splatoon 2 which has a large Japanese fan base and will launch this July. You can expect to hear more about these anticipated game and other plans Nintendo has in early June at the E3 conference. We expect the hype that comes from Nintendo at E3 will also help rally the stock.
mario and splatoon
Nintendo has also released three smart phone application games; that unlike Pokémon Go, they actually do own exclusivity to. There are also plans for more mobile apps on the way. The recent news of the Zelda mobile app has set the internet ablaze with people wanting to know more. Little is known about the Zelda app or how it will work or even if it will be profitable. There are fan theories, but Nintendo is very secretive about what the Zelda app will be. The Zelda app is due to release this year, but not before their Animal Crossing app. Little is known about both, and it will be interesting to see how Nintendo plans to monetize these mobile games.

After the investor hype and misunderstanding of the Pokémon Go fiasco, I won’t get caught up in the hype of a mobile app until I know more about it. And neither should you. We should know, who profits from the app? And how have they monetized it? I am long for NTDOY and I am very excited of their potential with the new console and mobile applications.

Disclosure: I/we have no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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You Lost Money in the Markets Last Year, Here’s Why…

Imagine logging into your brokerage account right now and finding an additional $317,780.

How would that feel?

That’s exactly what a Berkeley trained mathematician showed Tom T. how to do.

The mathematician’s name is Dr. Richard Smith. And he’s come up with what’s quite possibly the most unique investing idea of the last quarter century.

Dr. Smith discovered that upwards of 99% of investors have potentially thousands of dollars hiding in their brokerage accounts.

Now he’s come up with way that shows you how to identify and collect the unclaimed money currently sitting inside your portfolio……without the need to buy anything new.

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Incomes Are Going Down, Jobs Are Disappearing…Here’s Your Survival Guide.

I got fired…

Security escorted me out. They would send me my box later.

All self-help is bullshit. It’s hard to choose yourself when an iceberg hits the Titanic.

People write books: “How To Not Give A Shit” and it’s supposed to be helpful – to toughen you up, make you stronger.

“The 5 Minute Effective Leader”.

Doesn’t work.

 

Or then there’s the books not in the psychology section but across the aisle in the self-help section: meditate, think positive, picture positive visualizations.

When the boss asks you to leave and security escorts you out and there’s no severance, there’s also no meditation in the world.

Meditation won’t pay the rent. Thinking of nothing won’t put food on the table.

Visualization is a dream. And the universe owes you nothing.

Sure, if you do it, it might help. But who is doing that?

I’m not doing it.

I can’t. I’m stuck.

When you’re depressed you can’t sleep at night and then you can’t wake up in the morning.

I can’t handle thinking of a future where I might be broke. Or lonely. A shaved head, living in a gutter, abandoned.

I’ve seen it happen.

I’ve been broke…worse than broke, more than once. But I keep coming back.

 

The truth is that I always go broke when I stop reading.

Before I started my first business I was obsessed with reading everything I could. Fiction (because I wanted to write novels) and non-fiction (because I loved technology and something called “The Internet” was just starting).

And then I started reading books about business because the Internet and entertainment and my life all seemed to be merging with business.

My first business was creating websites for people. My second business was creating “mobile websites” for people, which really didn’t exist then.

In between the first and second business I played poker for 365 days. Even the day my daughter was born. I couldn’t help myself.

My accountant finally said the worst thing he can ever say to me. He said, “you should be starting another business”. I wish I had just kept playing poker.

I lost everything in that second business. Here’s what happened.
I stopped reading.

I separated from my wife. I had no clue what my business did. I fell in love. I started drinking a lot. I went broke. Lost my house. Lost my family. Blah blah.

I’m sick of “failure porn”. Ok, we get it.

People fail. Then they come back from it and somehow they turn into Steve Jobs. Steve Jobs is this generation’s mythical “phoenix”.

So now I get to listen to music on my phone and my teenage daughter probably sends nude pictures to boys on her iphone.

When I was playing poker I read every book ever written about poker. I watched every video. I was still reading a lot.

But something got into my head. Something bad when I started my second business.

I was really unhappy in a lot of ways. I can’t even tell you why I was so unhappy. My dad was always going broke so I thought I was finally going beyond where he went. I thought I was superior to him.

I thought I didn’t need to do what he did.

And since he was a big reader, I no longer needed to read. And since he stayed with his wife, I no longer needed to.
I know now: investing in yourself is the best investment you can make.

Incomes are going down for young people for the first time in forever…

Jobs (a TON of jobs) are being lost to robots, to artificial intelligence

Student loan debt is out of control, nearly impossible to pay back…

And housing keeps getting more expensive…

But forget about failure porn. You don’t have to lose.

Do what I did. Read.

 

I picked out 20 books to help you. 20 books that will make you smarter (and maybe richer).

Remember I always go broke when I stop reading. So I choose these books as the cure for fear about money.

And I want you to have them.

All 20. I will pay for them and ship them to you.

Some books in this giveaway are the sort of books I call “IQ books”. I read them and I feel like my IQ is going up. “Sapiens”, “Bold”, “Wonderland” are like that and several others.

Other books are about amazingly intelligent people who are sharing their lives and I am just blown away by not only their experiences and their intelligence but also how their playfulness often inspired them to greatness. “A Man for All Markets” and “Moneyball” fall into those categories.

And there’s a third category on this list which includes books I personally used to get myself to be a better investor.

The investing world is constantly changing. But to get good you have to know the foundation and many of these books are foundational, even the one fiction book (a financial thriller from  the 1970s) that snuck it’s way onto this list.

I can’t give all 20 books to all the people who read this, but I can give them to some people. See the bottom of this post.

 

Here are the books I’m giving away:

  1. Tools of Titans” by Tim Ferris’s
  2. Bold” by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler
  3. Abundance” by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler
  4. Unshakeable” by Tony Robbins
  5. Damn Right!” (biography of Charlie Munger) by Janet Lowe
  6. Wonderland” by Steven Johnson
  7. Payoff” by Dan Ariely
  8. The Billion Dollar Sure Thing” by Paul Erdman
  9. Sapiens” by Yuval Noah Harari
  10. Moneyball” by Michael Lewis
  11. The Undoing Project” by Michael Lewis
  12. Stealing Fire” by Steven Kotler and Jamie Wheal
  13. Essays of Warren Buffett” by Warren Buffett and Lawrence  Cunningham
  14. The Black Swan” by Nassim Taleb
  15. Fooled By Randomness” by Nassim Taleb
  16. A Man For All Markets” by Edward O. Thorp and Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  17. Too Big To Fail” by Andrew Ross Sorkin
  18. Elon Musk” by Ashlee Vance
  19. Hedge Fund Market Wizards” by Jack D. Schwager and Ed Seykota
  20. Reinvent Yourself” by James Altucher

 

Here’s the link if you want to sign up for my giveaway. I think it’s about $400-500 in value, but I haven’t added it up. Maybe it’s more.

There are also ways to increase the chances of getting all of the books. I describe them in this link: http://www.jamesaltucher.com/giveaways/book-giveaway-2017/

I charge nothing. I want nothing.

I just want to run into you and we can say, “We both loved these books…and here’s how they changed our lives”

 

Is Microsoft Overvalued?

Summary

  • Microsoft stock has been on a nearly unimpeded rally over the past two years and has beaten the S&P by a wide margin.
  • But in this time, Microsoft’s earnings haven’t grown much at all. Earnings growth is weighed down by declining margins, the strong U.S. dollar, and slowing emerging market growth.
  • At 19 times forward earnings, Microsoft stock is valued at levels not seen in years. As hard as this is to say, I think Microsoft is overvalued right now.

Tech giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has traditionally been one of the cheapest blue chip tech stocks. For many years, Microsoft was dogged for its over-reliance on the personal computer, and this pervasive bearishness kept its valuation multiples at low levels, frequently in the low double-digits.

That is, until recently. Thanks to the advancements Microsoft has made in growth areas like the cloud, investors have rewarded the stock with a lofty valuation multiple.

After a prolonged period of trading in a relatively tight range, Microsoft stock is up 26% in the past year, while the S&P is down 5% in the same time. Investors have recently become very enthusiastic about the future growth possibilities, but the reality is that Microsoft’s earnings growth hasn’t kept up with rising expectations. The result is that at this point, Microsoft trades for a higher valuation than it has at any point in the past five years.

I wrote about Microsoft several times in the past year, including this article in April and this article in July, in which I advised investors to buy the stock because of how cheap it was. Microsoft has performed strongly since those recommendations. Now that the stock is at $52, it’s no longer cheap. I believe buying at this level will set up investors for only mediocre annualized returns going forward. I can’t believe I’m saying this – but Microsoft appears overvalued.

Earnings Aren’t Keeping Pace With The Stock Price

To be sure, Microsoft is no longer the same company that traded for a 10-12 forward P/E. It has made demonstrable progress in breaking away from the PC, and has made huge inroads into higher-growth areas. Due to the success of cloud-based platforms like Office 365 and Azure, Microsoft’s commercial cloud revenue soared 96% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, and has now exceeded an $8 billion annual run rate. Microsoft’s revenue growth in recent years has been impressive: the company grew revenue by 7.8% in fiscal 2015, and by 11% in fiscal 2014.

The problem is that Microsoft has had to spend increasing amounts of money to obtain this revenue growth. This has weighed on Microsoft’s margins and the result has been weak, almost non-existent earnings growth. Even when excluding the billions in impairment charges taken against GAAP earnings in the past few years, Microsoft’s adjusted non-GAAP earnings have flat-lined. For example, Microsoft earned $2.62 per share in 2013, $2.64 per share in 2014, and $2.63 per share in 2015.

Microsoft hasn’t gotten off to the best start in fiscal 2016 either. Revenue declined 6%, while earnings grew just 3% in the first quarter, year over year. Microsoft is getting hit by many of the same headwinds that are causing other tech stocks to plummet – namely, the strengthening U.S. dollar – and slowing economic growth in emerging markets like China. But while most other tech stocks are declining to reflect these challenges, Microsoft shares keep rallying. That should be a concern to investors buying at these levels.

Microsoft has beaten the S&P 500 by 37 percentage points in the past two years, despite virtually no earnings growth in that time. That has elevated Microsoft’s valuation to levels not seen in years. At 19 times forward earnings, expectations are simply too high. The other adverse effect of Microsoft’s bloated valuation is that it has lowered the dividend yield, to 2.5%. In other words, investors aren’t getting a very good buying opportunity at this price, either from a value or income perspective.

Microsoft: Good Company, Not-So-Good Stock

What made Microsoft such a compelling buy in my previous articles – its dirt-cheap valuation and 3%-3.5% dividend yield are no longer there. Microsoft remains a highly profitable company. But there are many cases in which a strong company can amount to a poor investment if too high a price is paid for its future earnings growth.

The great thing about buying great companies when they’re cheap is that the future expectations are so low that the company doesn’t have to get everything right in order for investors to earn decent returns. That’s why Microsoft stock was a much better buy when I wrote about it in previous articles. Expectations were very low, and the dividend yield was much higher, which meant the future return potential was greater. However, the flip side of this dynamic is also true: Microsoft now has higher expectations than at any point in the past five years.

At 19 times forward earnings, I believe the stock doesn’t offer much of a margin of safety. As a result, I’d wait for a decent pullback of 10%-20% – at least to a forward P/E multiple in the mid-teens – before jumping in.

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the author, who is not a licensed financial advisor. This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice to any particular individual. Readers should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

The above article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha, written by Bob Ciura.

Nintendo Reveals Further Plans for E3, Including Pokemon, Legend of Zelda

zeldae32

We’ve already known that Nintendo was eager to show off the upcoming The Legend of Zelda for Wii U at this year’s E3 and were dedicating their entire booth space to the title. Now, the company has revealed further details on their plans for E3 including how fans at home can get in on the fun.

June 8

The Legend of Zelda Twitter campaign for Miitomo in-app gifts: Miitomo users should check @NintendoAmerica on Twitter today for a special tweet kicking off a collaboration between the mobile app and the Legend of Zelda franchise. If the tweet gets a combined 10,000 retweets worldwide, Nintendo will issue a “Link’s new hair wig” as an in-app gift to all users of Nintendo’s Miitomo mobile app. If it gets 20,000 combined retweets, Nintendo will give all Miitomo users a “Link wig” in the Miitomo app.

June 14

More of The Legend of Zelda in Miitomo: Miitomo will continue its celebration of The Legend of Zelda with a themed Miitomo Drop game that will give players the chance to win The Legend of Zelda-themed in-app gear for their Mii character. Players will also be able to use Miitomo coins in Miitomo to purchase The Legend of Zelda collaboration items. An additional The Legend of Zelda collaboration gift will be available on the My Nintendo website, and players can exchange their My Nintendo Platinum Points for this item.

Nintendo Treehouse: Live – Day 1: Nintendo’s kickoff to the E3 trade show begins at 9 a.m. PT, with an introduction by Nintendo of America President and COO Reggie Fils-Aime and the world’s first look at live gameplay of The Legend of Zelda game for the Wii U console. Viewers can also catch the first live gameplay of the Pokémon Sun and Pokémon Moon games. Watch Nintendo Treehouse: Live via Nintendo’s channels on YouTube and Twitch, as well as on http://e3.nintendo.com.

Nintendo eShop sale: Starting at 11 a.m. PT until 8:59 a.m. PT on June 21, Nintendo is offering discounts on some of its most popular games as a special treat for fans. My Nintendo members who are signed in will also get a special bonus if they buy select games included in the sale. Anyone who hasn’t signed up for My Nintendo yet is encouraged to do so now to avoid the E3 rush. To get the extra discount, My Nintendo members must link their Nintendo Account to their Nintendo Network ID and access Nintendo eShop on their device at least once before they make a purchase. The discounted games can be purchased in Nintendo eShop or at http://e3.nintendo.com. Details about the discounts can also be found at http://e3.nintendo.com.

June 15

Nintendo Treehouse: Live – Day 2: Starting at 10 a.m. PT, the Nintendo Treehouse: Live programming will showcase upcoming Wii U and Nintendo 3DS games, including Monster Hunter Generations from Capcom, Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past and Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE. The day will start with a special Pokémon GO developer Q&A. Watch all of Nintendo’s action from the E3 show floor via Nintendo’s channels on YouTube and Twitch, as well as on http://e3.nintendo.com.

The Legend of Zelda for Wii U will launch in 2017 for the console, and the game will also debut as a title for Nintendo’s next console, currently codenamed Nintendo NX. Check back here during E3 for our updates straight from the convention floor!

How Samsung Is Winning Mobile VR Revolution

Summary

Samsung is a pioneer in the mobile virtual reality market. Its consumer version of Gear VR is available for sale now just for $99.

Increased shipment of smartphones, strong brand recognition and the rise of the VR market are the main catalysts for company’s growth.

Currently, Samsung is a major manufacturer of hardware virtual reality devices for mobile customers.

In November, Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) launched a new marketing campaign to promote its virtual reality device Samsung Gear VR. The campaign is a part of Samsung’s global initiative called It’s Not a Phone, It’s a Galaxy.

The ad shows a wide variety of people that use Samsung Gear VR to watch a different kind of content that is available for the device. And the slogan is clear: Virtual reality just got real. And that’s true. Last year, there were a number of VR devices announced to be released anytime soon and “hungry” developers already started to explore this relatively new technology for their own use. Samsung’s Gear VR is one of the pioneers in this industry, with the consumer version available for sale now just for $99. This puts the company at the top of the smartphone VR spectrum in terms of quality and price. And considering the fact that Samsung has enormous resources and a properly-built ecosystem, it seems that its VR device will be there for a long time.

Catalysts for growth

If we look at the current virtual reality market, we would see that there are two different types of VR devices. The first ones are built for PC and consoles and offer a greater experience and a better graphics to the end user. However, they cost more and customers need a more powerful platform to use them. The examples are Facebook’s (NASDAQ:FB) Oculus Rift and Sony’s (NYSE:SNE) PlayStation VR. The second category of VR headsets is created for smartphones. They don’t offer the same quality of graphics and physics as VR devices from the first category, but they’re cheaper and more accessible for buyers.

Samsung Gear VR fits into the second category and is compatible with all of the Galaxy smartphones. All you need to do is slip your phone inside the headset and you experience the world of virtual reality. The first consumer versions of the device were released last November and became one of the best-selling products on the market. Engadget called it a no-brainer and CNET said that it offers the best VR mobile experience so far.

As I said before, Samsung Gear VR is designed for mobile platforms. And it’s obvious that the company will benefit from the rising smartphone market. According to Statista, global smartphone shipments will rise in the next couple of years:

(Source: Statista)

And the fact that Gear VR is comparable only with Samsung devices is not a big deal because the company has the biggest share of the smartphone market in the world and it seems that it will only expand further and increase the number of its users.

(Source: Counterpoint Research)

As the virtual reality industry gains traction, more and more competitors will join the field. That’s why for Samsung it’s important to establish a presence in the industry as fast as possible. According to the data from research company TrendForce, the global value of the virtual reality market will grow consistently each year, from less than $10 billion in 2016 to around $70 billion in 2020:

And as we can see from the picture above, hardware will play a crucial role at the first stages of this fast-growing market. And the market is not that populated at the moment. Samsung’s main competitors in this field are private companies like Freefly, Noon, Zeiss and others. However, most of them are selling only online and don’t have the luxury to be available for sale at the major retail franchises. And Samsung’s ecosystem offers far more greater experience than all of those companies. At the same time, the competitors’ price is in the range of $70 to $120 and the quality of the product can be questioned.

The last factor that plays an important role in Gear VR success is Samsung’s brand recognition. Long ago, the company established itself as a major player in the electronics market and people love to buy its products, thanks to the great quality and relatively low price.

Conclusion

The virtual reality industry is just gaining traction. A lot of companies are already developing their own devices and hope to take some chunk of this fast-growing market. And while big tech giants like Facebook, Sony and HTC are making their product for the powerful platforms like the PC and next-gen consoles, Samsung is taking the most out of mobile customers.

At this point in time, it’s important for the company to establish itself as a major manufacturer of hardware virtual reality devices. And that’s what Samsung is doing great at the moment. All of its headsets are already sold out and pre-orders are way off the cliff. With the strong presence in the industry, the company could afford to invite the best software developers to create content for the Gear VR. I believe that Samsung had a great launch for its VR device last November, and with the resources that they have and all of the catalysts that I described in this article, the company is poised for growth.

The above article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha, written by Dana Blankenhorn.

Nintendo to give gamers the perfect reason to buy a 4K TV

NINTENDO’S new NX console could have a big say on whether you buy a 4K TV in the future.

Nintendo-NX-

More information supposedly connected with the Nintendo NX project has surfaced today, revealing more on what the new console could be like.

A list of new details have appeared on Reddit, from a verified Reddit user by the name of UntypedHero.

For those who want to know, the Reddit moderators of the board say they have been able to verify that the poster has got connections with Nintendo development.

According to this new report, the Nintendo NX will include a wide range of compatibility options and be able to handle ports of current-gen titles, although no specific stats were included.

One of the most interesting titbits of information given to us from UntypedHero concerns the NX’s potential to output games at 4K, which could prove as stiff competition for the promised 4K ready PS4 that’s also supposed to launch this year.

Here are the full details from the Reddit post:

• The retail name for the NX is unknown to developers (or they are holding back). I’ve asked multiple sources.
• I know of at least 1 third-party Wii U game that has/have been successfully ported to NX.
• Amiibo are still supported (if you hadn’t already guessed).
• Friend codes are still a thing (unfortunately).
• I don’t know when the NX will be announced. Speculation is this month.
• There are multiple “gimmicks” with the NX, one is optional.
• There are physical dev-kits out in the wild, I don’t have access to these.
• I don’t know the model of the GPU, however there is little doubt (from what I’ve been told) that it an AMD.
• The NX is capable of outputting 4k. Consensus is up-scaling and streaming.
• DDR4 Memory (between 6GB – 8GB).”

As with every rumor it’s still worth taking everything with a pinch of salt until Nintendo confirm these details themselves.

This follows news last week that the new-look revamped Playstation 4 and Nintendo’s secretive NX console will both release before Christmas.

That was the verdict of industry insiders after computer maker AMD announced custom chips for both machines were being prepared for 2016 releases.

Playstation is so far refusing to publicly announce its revamped PS4K machine – which is rumored to come with a new God of War game.

But leaks have suggested it will launch with double the graphics power of the current PS4 and 4K video capability.

That means images will be up to four times better than the current 1080p HD quality of most flat screen televisions.

This post was originally published on DailyStar.co.uk

Nintendo unveils new line of official amiibo diorama kits

AD 1

Why leave your inactive Nintendo heroes out on the shelf when you can give them a proper home?

Nintendo hit an absolute home run with its amiibo line. Before it was launched, skeptics wondered if gamers would be willing to buy one of the game-enhancing figurines, but the real question has turned out to be what collectors should do with the multiple amiibos they’ve purchased but aren’t currently using.

The easy answer is to stick them on a shelf, but is such a mundane space really the proper environment in which to display some of the most imaginative and iconic video game characters ever conceived? Nintendo itself seems to think not, and so the company’s Japanese division has announced that it will soon start selling amiibo diorama kits.

AD 2

AD 3

Two different kits will be initially available. Given the expansive crossover roster that shows up in Super Smash Bros., a diorama based on the multi-player franchise was an obvious choice for one of the inaugural offerings.

AD 4

AD 5

Not quite as versatile, but no less charming, is the Kirby diorama, a perfect home for the all-consuming hero plus his friends and adversaries.

▼ It even comes with a handful of props.

AD 6

AD 7

AD 8

AD 9

The dioramas can fold flat when not in use, with their respective series logos prominently displayed.

AD 10

Both are priced at 864 yen (US$7.75), a few hundred yen less than an amiibo figure will cost you in Japan, and go on sale April 28. If they prove to be as popular as the amiibos themselves have been, you can bet that we’ll eventually see Hyrule, the Mushroom Kingdom, and Planet Zebes added to lineup.

This article was originally posted on Rocket News

The Long Case For Nintendo

Summary

  • Nintendo is coiled like a spring ready to jump.
  • The market has underestimated the NX and mobile offerings.
  • Nintendo is not currently in vogue and now is the perfect time to buy.

Elevator Pitch

Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) is extremely undervalued for the future potential contained within the Nintendo IP. Get in before the NX details are revealed in June and the stock spikes. Additionally, several big games are on the near-term horizon, including a new Zelda for the Wii U and the final reveal of the Nintendo DeNA mobile offering.

Thesis And Catalyst For Nintendo

Nintendo has long been thought of by the market as a company past its prime and headed for a dim future. I hope that this recap of the near-term horizon changes your mind.

While I agree that the past few years have not been kind to Nintendo with the missteps of the Wii U (an abysmal failure of a console due to shoddy marketing and poor timing), the future looks very bright. Nintendo has some of the most valuable and well-loved IP in the world tied up in its various franchises (Mario, Metroid, Donkey Kong, Smash Brothers).

The recent moves into mobile and the upcoming NX (new console) reveal scheduled for June/July will generate catalysts that have the potential to drive the stock price up based on hype alone. As a reference, the mere prospect of Nintendo entering the mobile space drove the share price from $14 up to $22 peaking in September at $25.

News on the first (underwhelming) mobile offering (Titled “Miitomo”) had many scratching their heads as the game seems to be more like a social network app than an actual “game”. Share price has steadily dropped since this news which you can see on the chart below.

NTDOY performance over last yearClick to enlarge

It is still not completely clear as to what Nintendo’s mobile game strategy is and it has been very tight lipped on details. I expect to see “freemium” or “free to try” offerings of a variety of games and potentially the opening up of the back catalog of Nintendo products from previous consoles. If Nintendo plays this hand correctly, it will be the top selling apps in a market that Nintendo had previously not touched.

The NX is also a bit of a mystery but I expect it will be a hybrid console/portable replacement for the 3DS and Wii U with more power and a “platform” of software that allows the same games to be played on the TV or remotely. There may even be some mobile integration which would further tie the NX as a true “Nintendo Cross” platform offering.

We should also see a new Zelda game in 2016 for the Wii U which will be a system seller building on the recent Wii U monster successes of Splatoon and Super Mario Maker. (Mario Maker is regarded by many critics as the best game of 2015)

Valuation

Nintendo is about to turn the corner and is poised to jump back into the lead in the console/video game market if the mobile offerings hit big and the NX delivers on the hype.

There are two ways to play Nintendo from my perspective. Buy the stock now and hold until the NX and mobile offering reveals (sell the news) or purchase for the long term with the expectation that Nintendo will regain much of its lost footing in the home console market.

Personally, I intend to hold until the NX/Mobile reveals and have set a sale target price of $26 based on levels seen previously when the news of Nintendo IP going to mobile was first published.

If the stock does not achieve that level in June/July, I intend to hold long term if I agree with the technical direction and business strategy that Nintendo reveals.

Variant View

What could go wrong?

If the NX or mobile game offerings are VERY underwhelming, expect the market to mostly yawn and keep the NTDOY share price in the range of $12-16 with an upside of maybe $19-20.

The above article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha, written by Jimmy Lamz.

Sony: The Cable Replacement

pstv

SNE is rolling out its web TV service, Vue, across the US with a starting price of $30.

Broader availability, attractive pricing, robust content and rising hardware sales are all supportive of Vue’s long-term growth outlook.

Remain bullish on SNE.

Sony (NYSE:SNE) just made cord-cutting easier. PlayStation Vue, SNE’s web TV product, is now available across the US starting for as little as $30/month. Vue is a cable replacement in that it delivers numerous TV channels and on-demand content, and also allows the viewers to record shows on DVR and watch multiple TVs around the house in one account.

Given the current weakness with the basic cable subs trend that we witnessed last quarter, lower pricing, broader availability and strong PS4 sales momentum could potentially accelerate the cord cutting trend in the US.

Equally important, the recent FCC ruling on cable set-top box is a positive for SNE in that it could drive broader adoption of third-party set-tops. Given that the video game console is evolving to become a comprehensive media home entertainment device, I see SNE as one of the beneficiaries. I remain bullish on SNE.

When SNE introduced PS Vue a year ago, it was difficult to see why anyone would sign up for the product given its unattractive pricing and lack of content differentiation. However, the addition of Disney (NYSE:DIS) products was a game changer in that Vue now can offer live linear content from all of its Big Four networks, effectively addressing PS Vue’s earlier weakness in content offering. Despite the decline in viewership, ESPN remains the largest sports network in the US and continues to have the capability of attracting viewers given its live sports programming.

The nationwide rollout puts Vue in direct competition against other web-TV products such as DISH’s (NASDAQ:DISH) Sling TV, which cost $20/month ($25/month with sports add-on). Although Sling TV is cheaper and has broader device penetration (i.e. Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast, iPhones and iPads,Android phones and tablets, Android TV devices, Xbox One, and PC and Mac computers), Vue surpasses Sling TV in terms of content offering with ABC and Disney channels, which is why I am bullish on Vue’s growth outlook and on SNE.

On a final note, web TV services such as the Vue will no doubt result in higher data consumption among its subs. As these services get consumed over wireless, the higher data demand actually favors smaller wireless carriers such as T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) and Sprint (NYSE:S) that have more spectrum than the incumbent AT&T and Verizon. Higher spectrum and lower spectrum cost advantage allow TMUS and S to be the preferred carriers to consume these media channels over mobile.

In conclusion, SNE is better positioned to capitalize on the cable unbundling trend that is shaping up in North America. When comparing against Sling TV, PS Vue is looking more like a competitive web TV package. Additionally, the rising popularity of the PlayStation 4 could drive meaningful penetration of PS Vue in the US, allowing SNE to take TV subs from the cable companies. That said, I remain bullish on SNE and cautious on traditional cable companies such as Time Warner (NYSE:TWC) and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA). SNE remains one of my top picks amongst the Japanese tech stocks.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Article originally posted on Seeking Alpha